There is no doubt that the pandemic will result in the countless loss of life, reduced exports and reduce purchasing power. So that could mean a two-thirds dip in global export earnings of Jamaica Blue Mountain coffee and Jamaica High Mountain coffee . Even before the pandemic sales were sluggish with weak demand, despite the product tasting better than ever. The real question after the sector hits bottom in 2021/22 will be, how to double the rate of recovery.
For sustained buyers of Jamaica coffee, we salute you. It is now a buyer’s market and you can set the price. Expect discounts and the sort. If before the pandemic, you were hesitant to try top tier brands from Jamaica, now is the time. That’s because those prices are tumbling while the quality remains uber luxury.
The price of Jamaica Blue Mountain (JBM) coffee jumped so much in 2015 that it now rivals the price of Kopi coffee and outpriced itself from Hawaiian Kona, but what goes up comes down.
Coffee bars around the world historically offer Kona and JBM at roughly the same prices . The 2015 local coffee shortage and rise in Japanese demand changed that with JBM retailing at about $60 per pound from about US$35 a pound a few years earlier for quality beans.
It resulted in the wealthy huffing and puffing but still buying the luxury super-uber-yummy coffee from Jamaica. The regular rich however choose to drink tea instead ( Starbucks buys Teavanna ).
Jamaicamocha spoke to key dealers who predict the fall in price of JBM by 2017 due to reduced demand in Japan and ramp up in supply. “A large Japanese dealer stopped carrying JBM and other roasters in Japan are bailing and crying about the price,” said dealer A.
With the rise in prices for JBM every farmer’s son and grandson returned to till the soil. The rise in farmers on resuscitated lands will result in a jump in production and the magic number is 350,000 boxes for the crop year.
Hitting that target would put supply at a decade year high.
Another dealer said that JBM’s market is like a pyramid the higher the price the smaller the market. Simple economics dictates that price remains when demand and supply are in equilibrium: Yet demand is falling and the supply is rising.
Jamaicamocha believes on advise of dealers that the prices will fall back to about $45 a pound by 2017. Until then small poor farmers benefit. Dealers benefit and the discerning consumer gets his uber fix without counterfeits.
Coffee shortage continues to affect the availability of Jamaica Blue Mountain JBM beans. Its based on a confluence of factors now led by drought.
Less beans resulted in price increases of roughly 40% in real terms to consumers. Interestingly small farmers benefit with box prices of coffee cherries inching past J$8,000 (U$70).
” I hear they paying up to J$9,500 a box,” a source indicated.
To consumers it resulted in a shortage of favourite brands.
For instance, the beans of large supplier Jablum remain out of stock–going three months now or since November. “We won’t have brand before April,” another source said this week.
Twymans –started restricting sales.
Amber–only has ground available but peaberry beans are still available in its ‘Supreme’ brand
Island Blue –beans are once again available in limited supplies