Tag: Guatemala coffee

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Jamaica to benefit from Coffee futures

Coffee prices referenced on the commodities market are trading near two year highs.

Prices are up 50 per cent since lows of 2019 on news of an expected drop in production going forward, while at the same time met with increased demand from developed nations for coffee.

“World exports are expected down 4.7 million bags to 115.4 million primarily due to lower shipments from Brazil and Honduras,” stated the Coffee: World Markets and Tradereport published this month by the US Department of Agriculture. “With global consumption forecast at a record 166.4 million bags, ending inventories are expected to slip 400,000 bags to 35.0 million.

The report stated that coffee production for 2019/20 is forecast 5.3 million bags (60 kilogrammes) lower than the previous year to 169.3 million, primarily due to Brazil’s Arabica trees entering the off-year of the biennial production cycle.

Arabica coffee futures are now at US$1.31 from just shy of the US$1.38 52 week high but far from the low of US$0.86. It follows on a series of measures which affected demand and supply.

It matters, as the commodity futures give a guide to the directional flow of pricing of most coffees, even those that do not trade on the exchange like luxury Jamaica Blue Mountain. The entire crop of JBM can fit into less than a day’s production in Colombia, so the island’s crop does not affect demand or supply. Buyers in Japan however which accounts for some 70 per cent of total sales of JBM beans will be less likely to pay a premium for JBM if coffee demand overall is down.

“The Japanese are buying again but the prices are not that great,” said a Spokesman for a large farming brand in the Jamaica Blue Mountains.

The data for this year’s total exports of Jamaica Blue Mountain are not yet disclosed.

China continues to grow its consumption with the growth of Luckin Coffee formed in 2017 and listed this year. It continues to add several stores a day now at some 4,280 up over 200 per cent year on year, at the time of this report. It is now the largest chain in China surpassing Starbucks which operates some 4,100 sores in China.

 

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Starbucks lattes nearly half cheaper in Latin America than Jamaica

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Mavis Bank, Jamaica–An independent study on Starbucks chains found that it costs nearly 50 per cent more to buy a latte in Jamaica than in other major coffee growing nations in the region, Colombia or Guatemala.

It costs US$3.30 in Jamaica but the same latte costs US$2.04 in Colombia and US$2.86 in Guatemala. All produce coffee, so why the disparity.

Colombia, formalised a policy which forced Starbucks to buy its coffee locally. As such all the coffee consumed in Starbucks Colombia comes from various coffee regions in Colombia. Jamaica does not have such a policy and this influences the pricing of coffee, as it imports all its beans. In fact Caribbean Coffee which holds the franchise for Starbucks in the island admitted that even the Jamaica Blue Mountainconsumed in Starbucks locally is reimported. Additionally, within a Starbucks in Jamaica, the cheapest origin branded beans are actually from Guatemala for roughly one-third the cost of Jamaica Blue Mountain. Cost conscious consumers gravitate to the cheaper product.

Finder, a non-aligned comparison platform and information service, curated the index, and ranked Jamaica at 43 among the 76 countries surveyed. It ranked Guatemala at 61 and Colombia as the third cheapest in the world.

A latte is made of one-third espresso and two-thirds milk with light foam on top.

The study itself has two components: a coffee cost comparison and a GDP valuation index. In Jamaica, the index showed that a latte is being sold at 6.01 per cent less than the expected coffee cost based on the country’s GDP per capita. In Colombia it found that the coffee is being sold for one-third more expensive than it should, when matched against its GDP per capita.

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Denmark offered the most expensive location for a latte at US$6.05 versus Turkey the cheapest at US$1.78. Geographically, Europe offered the most expensive cup of coffee, followed by Asia and the Americas.

In Jamaica, as Starbucks cafes get more packed, the locals which traditionally do not drink coffee are being weaned on lattes and caps and flat whites. What of the local farmer. Its not likely to change anything as the demand is for cheap quick coffee rather than the luxury provided from the Blue Mountains.

Consequently, the actual benefit of Starbucks in Jamaica is the subsidised Guatemala coffee and other blends. These imports are likely to affect the coffee trade balance in Jamaica as exports have flattened. But that’s the focus of a different article.

The Starbucks index is an informal way to measure the strength or weakness of local currencies for a common item against other countries. It’s supported by research that excludes variances that affect the cost of a coffee, like prices of raw beans, local labour costs and taxes.

-jamaicamocha